AI Bubble Risk Indicator
Composite signal: valuation, liquidity, narrative, concentration, and compute infrastructure.
Providers: 0 / 4 liveLast updated: Feb 19, 04:09 PM
63
/ 100
Bubble Risk Zone
The composite indicator is at 63/100 — firmly in the Bubble Risk Zone. Multiple signals — particularly NVDA dist from 200D MA and Google Trends avg — are elevated beyond historical norms.
2026-02-19Demo
Composite Score — 60D TrendSimulated
Normal (<30)Elevated (30–60)Bubble (>60)
Valuation & Price Excess
Elevated66/ 100Simulated
NVDA dist from 200D MA12.4%
SMH trend strength8.8%
QQQ RSI (14D)45
Liquidity & Financial Conditions
Moderate47/ 100Simulated
10Y yield 3M chg+0.17 pp
Credit spread (BAA)2.32 pp
Financial conditions (NFCI)0.12
Narrative & Attention
Elevated76/ 100Simulated
Google Trends avg100
GDELT news volume9059
GDELT tone0.51
Concentration & Dispersion
Elevated77/ 100Simulated
Cross-asset dispersion1.9%
NVDA concentration43%
Compute & InfrastructureBeta
Moderate50/ 100Simulated
Hyperscaler capex momentumβ+7.0
Energy cost proxyβ128.9
GPU supply tightnessRoadmap
Cooling & water riskRoadmap
Top Drivers — Pushing Score Up
▲99
NVDA dist from 200D MA
Valuation · 12.4% · 3.2σ
▲96
Google Trends avg
Narrative · 100 · 2.1σ
▲90
Credit spread (BAA)
Liquidity · 2.32 pp · 1.5σ
Factors Moderating Risk
▼39
QQQ RSI (14D)
Valuation · 45 · -0.3σ
▼50
GDELT tone
Narrative · 0.51 · -0.0σ
Watchlist — Key Metrics
NVDA 200D MA distance
Currently 12.4% above — watch for mean reversion
BAA credit spread
At 2.32pp — widening signals credit stress
Hyperscaler capex trend
3M change +7.0 — capex acceleration watch